Last week I posted a few thoughts on Lebanon and the direction it appeared was possible; that the Christians there could gain ground in the election because it was becoming clear that Hezbollah was complicit in the death of President Rafik Hariri. I also posted thoughts on how this could carry over to Iran as well if Iran allows for a free election.
Things played out as I expected. Lebanon’s Christians got a thrilling victory and it set the stage for a change in direction for Iran. But as we now know, Ahmadinejad, also seeing what happened in Lebanon, put the fix in. He is claiming a stunning 65% victory. That is completely absurd. Never in the history of elections has any candidate with support in the rural areas gotten a 2 to 1 victory over a candidate who has support in the urban centers.
However, history is replete with many examples of incumbent candidates who controlled the military, controlled the press, and most importantly controlled the polls, winning in a landslide. Joseph Stalin’s remark about elections seems to have ruled here. He once quipped that it isn’t as important who votes as it is who counts the votes. I feel sorry for the people of Iran. As I write this, thy are rioting and shouting “Down with the Dictator” in the streets.
So, these things seem to be leading up to some even more important cataclysmic events. Here is what I see as possible.
• Demonstrations in Iran will be brutally crushed. It remains to be seen if the opposition can weather this and turn it into a movement.
• Hezbollah in Lebanon will flex its muscle, showing its people that they will not take a back seat in the government.
• Ahmadinejad will become more apocalyptically prophetic and Obama will perhaps finally realize that there are some leaders who aren’t interested in hearing his speeches about common interests.
• Demonstrations in Iran will be brutally crushed. It remains to be seen if the opposition can weather this and turn it into a movement.
• Hezbollah in Lebanon will flex its muscle, showing its people that they will not take a back seat in the government.
• Ahmadinejad will become more apocalyptically prophetic and Obama will perhaps finally realize that there are some leaders who aren’t interested in hearing his speeches about common interests.
If Israel has ever considered attacking Iran to take out its nuclear capabilities, it is looking at this immediate time as the best opportunity it is ever going to have to do it. While the world is asleep, cards are being played in rapid fashion that are pushing that direction.
3 comments:
Happy Birthday, Freedom Fighter!
Good Post. I will be interested to see what happens between Obama and Ahmadinejad. Speaking of Obama's speeches about common interests, I would imagine the only speeches Ahmadinejad is interested in are his own.
Anonymous Sister
I'm hopeful that a greater thing is happening here. If US/Israel needs to drop anything on Iran, it's not bombs. It's George Orwell's book "Animal Farm".
Iran's people need to see that what happened in there country 30 years ago can, and MUST, happen again.
If Israel attacks Iran, the rebellion within it's borderes dissolves into nationalism, offfering Ahmadidiotjob and Hezbollah the opportunity to say, "I told you so." --kb
Kevin,
I Googled Iran's revolution and found an interesting report, "Shi'a: The Iranian Revolution" by Richard Hooker.
"The spark that erupted into revolution was a protest . . .on January 9, 1978. A group of students protested the visit of Jimmy Carter, the American President, and the government's attack on Ayatollah Khumayni."
(That in itself was interesting.)
From there, the report goes on to describe several demonstrations that got bloodier each time. Several hundred people died before the revolution was finally over.
Is that what can and MUST happen again, as you say?
I'm sure the Lord has a better plan. This week in my devotional Bible, I read Psalm 74:20,21 "Have respect to the covenant; For the dark places of the earth are full of the haunts of cruelty. Oh, do not let the oppressed return ashamed! Let the poor and needy praise Your name."
I thought of the Iranians and I'm praying for them. They need our prayers and the Lord's deliverance. That is our calling, our mandate to others in their horrific time of need.
Anonymous Sister
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