Watch Lebanon

Interestingly enough, one of the indictments against George Bush is that he and Condoleezza Rice encouraged elections in Lebanon and Gaza. They look at the results and proclaim that elections are not for some societies. “Look what they did, they legitimatized Hezbollah and Hamas,” the claim goes. But I believe that time will tell and that history will show that the Bush vision for the region, that of democratizing country after country will be revered as one of the great accomplishments in our time. Facilitating change of any country from an oppressive regime to one where people chose their leaders stands up to any indictment.

Where one election turned out in favor of the better organized and better funded terrorist groups, there are always more elections to come. The unique thing about elections, if they are allowed to be freely done is that they provide a self-correcting mechanism for any society. Over time, the elected people tend to establish a balance in the middle somewhere between the radical extremes. Over-played agendas tend to be reversed. If one extreme catches a vacuum of credibility caused by the opposite extreme, they are able to rush in and seize more power than they normally would.

In Lebanon we may get to see the phenomenon. Hezbollah won based on people’s fears of a weak government. Lebanon’s popular President Rafik Hariri had just been assassinated, not only leaving a leadership vacuum on the Christian side, but leaving an angry population. Now, it appears that a stunning revelation is coming out of the UN inquiry into who killed Hariri. It might not have been the foreign nation, Syria. It might have been the opposition party itself, Hezbollah.

The UN has yet to announce the findings. A German newspaper has unofficially leaked the information. Truth was leaked in spite of a well organized blanket to cover it. The results could be catastrophic for Hezbollah not only in the upcoming elections, but militarily as well. Likewise, it could be another devastating blow to Iran’s ability to control the region. Hezbollah’s sponsor is also having an election. Perhaps the association will cause enough damage to the ruthless Shiites in Iran as well.

Should all that happen and elections do what they are intended to do, we will see the peaceful change of power against these radical Islamists – all courtesy of the Bush Doctrine. However, there is also a scenario many are concerned about. And that is the one where the Shiites of Hezbollah and Iran lose their elections and yet refuse to relinquish power, proving what many have suspected. That is the concern that they were only interested in democracy when it served their purposes. If that proves to be the case, they will go militant and the Middle East will erupt. Gone will be the canard that it is all about Israel. It is really all about ruthless power. It always was.

There are several great articles on this. If you only access the MSM you aren't getting it. Here is a good Michael Totten article.